Recently a bunch of analysts have put out some really lowball price targets for Tesla Motors stock (currently trading at 139$ down from 155$ a few days back). One of them even gave off a price target of 50$ despite the fact that the company just blew away Q2 projected loss by actually making a profit. The negative criticism from a bunch of wall street analysts is there calling the stock overheated, overstretched, over-whatever etc.. just google 'TSLA stock'. Sure the spike to 155 did not last long and was a bit exaggerated but this was followed by a dip to as low as 138 today. 138 - it's pessimistic value a week before even BEFORE news of the projected loss into profit became public last week. All in all wtf mate? If everyone else can put out lowball figures based on their analyses then it's time for me to have my own day in the sun as well!!! 25-45$ was the price of Tesla stock for 2-3 years BEFORE IT EVEN MADE ANYTHING TANGIBLE. How does one come up with 50$ as their price target? Hell would freeze over, thaw, then freeze again if we hit 50 anytime soon that isn't a major bankruptcy event for the company. If you want to put out lowball 50-60-86$ lowball figures then just tell the truth - you think the company will belly flop and go bankrupt like all the other EV companies. Don't insult our intelligence with your chicken little valuations. Financial trolling at it's finest :D (and ironically they will claim it's not trolling it's the truth - and I agree - I've been labelled a troll for speaking my truth before). Anyways Ford and GM and all the other auto companies have 20-30$ stocks because yeah they went bankrupt or close to it in case anyone forgot (back when 'too big to fail' was a meme). Totally different game and all but enough of that - time to play karmic mirror again... Time for the most oddly practical and unscientific analysis of Tesla stock to date (well hopefully so as many analyses seem to have come close with their SOLE focus on x cars this x cars that...) It is time to...
BEAT THE BURRITO
My valuation of Tesla Motors in the future will be a price above and beyond $404.64. How did I come up with such an exact valuation for a price target to beat? Consider the figure below:
As of today Chipotle Mexican Grill is valued at $404.64. What has Chipotle done for us? Well for one it made high quality organic burritos mainstream for a lot of us I guess. Tbh though I don't know what it has done beyond that. Nothing revolutionary I suppose. They haven't found a way to grow pinto beans out of used corn husks or something like that. Actually in fact they are just another burrito joint that somehow made it big due to being first to market to organic whatever whatever. Or maybe they just had a really strong business distribution model like Wal-Mart. Or maybe as my friend says it was just really good advertising. I don't know and I'd reckon I would know if it were something revolutionary - let's say on the lines of - being first to market with an Electric Vehicle double the range of your competitors with a lot of proprietary patents and technologies to match...
So time for my winning analysis. All Tesla Motors has to do is beat the burrito to have a valuation greater than the one listed above! Beat the burrito that hasn't really done much for us in the world shaking sense of things. Beat the burrito - which is food - which is transient - which is necessity and fetish at the same time. We need food to live but tons have lived off much worse. Having organic cruelty free burritos is a nice step forwards but it isn't on the same tier as let's say reconstructing the corrupted century old automotive industry. Most of us drive cars to work every day. How many of us go to Chipotle every day? Maybe Tynan does :D. I wouldn't mind either given the purported food quality. Though they have revolutionized a way of removing 10$ from my wallet per meal and that's part of the reason I don't go much. Despite that though they've created a stock valuation for themselves in excess of 400$. And mind you this is WITHOUT reverse stock splits nor stock splits. This is raw value. All Tesla has to do to win is beat the burrito! Looking at it from this perspective how could you value the company at 50-86$? It boggles the mind...
Another related example is Lululemon stock. Personally I never heard of Lululemon until the see-thru Yoga pants incident. My only opinion on that - I wish I were into Yoga sooner :p. Anyway out of curiosity to see how much their stock would tank I pulled their numbers up. From their 2009 low they are at about 23x the value now. Twenty-three times! Tesla IPO'd at 20$ or something. 23 x 20 is 460$. I googled Lulu for a bit - their claim to fame was making 'technical clothing' that was comfortable. Gym clothing basically. So yeah - some niche gym clothing has taken a company to 73$ which is loads off from their 4$ value. If we want to make fair comparisons it IPO'd at 18$ and is now at 73$ which is around 4 times IPO price. And that's just for active clothing I hadn't heard of before they converted to see-thru fetish pants! If a small niche market can hit 73$ why can't a revolutionary electric car hit 50$?
So it's time to close up house here. All of you putting 50-86$ price targets on TSLA are doing some major financial trolling. They beat the burrito and they will hit above 406$. I hope my article was an attempt at some sort of analysis equally absurd to the lowball ones I've seen.
I guess to be fair I need to put in my disclaimer at the end as well.
Disclaimer: I am long on TSLA stock. Reaaaal long. In fact it's that kind of long when I see you big-wig $ analysts roll up in your expensive cars to your trophy wives at night and I take a look at them at the mall or something and get real long and hard. That long. Or maybe that's not true. Maybe you're alone and shorted TSLA and are now writing troll articles for the oil boys. In that case I don't need to tell you how to beat the burrito given that it probably happens every night before you trolls go to bed.
I don"t understand this party ' So it's time to close up house here. All of you putting 50-86$ price targets on TSLA are doing some major financial trolling. They beat the burrito and they will hit above 406$. I hope my article was an attempt at some sort of analysis equally absurd to the lowball ones I've seen.'
Eh no one called me out on it. Tesla has long beat Chipotle as Chipotle has a quarter of the shares Tesla does. Thus adjusting for even share floats Chipotle compared to Tesla is valued at ~$130 so unscientifically Tesla already beat the burrito as of writing and despite the recent pullback is now grinding it back into it's constituent components :p
For a more ambitious and mathematically sound comparison - if Tesla gets to the level Ford is valued at now then Tesla's final target price would be ~500$. If we got really ambitious and say Tesla will be as big as Google is now then Tesla's final target price would be ~3,000$.
Dr. Odio thinks they will win big MSFT (Microsoft) style - that places the future price target at ~$2,300 per share.
Let's say Tesla ground the big 3 automakers Ford, GM, Chrysler into a pulp and made them all their btch (unlikely but just for lols)
Ford: ~500$ + GM: ~420$ + Chrysler: ~480$ = ~1400$ price target
This is just based on comparing Tesla as an auto company selling cars vs other auto companies alone. I'd expect 1400 if they dominated that industry. If they find a way to transmute electricity more efficiently thru batteries it may just reach GOOG and MSFT rank at the 2-3k range.
TLDR Realistic Conclusion: Fapping by our US Govt. doesn't break oil dominance in the near future. Ford/GM/Chrysler keep their top spots due to lobbying. Tesla joints the list though making it the top 4 US automakers after putting down a ~35,000-40,000$ electric car with just about comparable range to a gasoline vehicle. Tesla will hit about 500$ eventually.
Thanks. Oddly enough a little of that self suggestion magic worked on me this afternoon and I went out to have a Chipotle burrito. No rice double steak w/ veggies + pinto beans + guac and extra cheese. Came up to about 12-14$ or something but I figured given it's huge size I'd split it into 2 and have 2 7$ meals.
I ate the first half then about 15% of the second half. I have to admit I was in love again. It was good. It had that satisfying satiating feeling of digging into a mass of good steak along with fresh corn tomatoes guac cheese peppers etc... I thought about it for a bit and realized if the burrito is split into 2 meals 7$ each for this tier of quality is a very reasonable price. One of my disappointments with fast food since a decade ago is the fact that price is quickly rising to mid-tier restaurant levels. Who the hell wants to spend 7$ for a McDonalds/Burger King value meal when you can go to Chili's or In-N-Out or the local burger joint and get a sit down meal for about the same price and better quality?
On a closing note I used that thought to try and dissect the fundamentals of Chipotle's blazing success over the past 3 years. Like many analysts with Tesla I couldn't figure it out :p. I kept reading reports of earnings of 12% a year compounded, opening more stores, yada yada yada. All in all it still kinda bothers me how such a novel idea has become so successful; Specifically - WHY IT TOOK THIS LONG TO BE SUCCESSFUL. I am sure even the least illuminated of us have come up with "hey!, why don't we make a fast food restaurant that serves healthy stuff?!?!" The concept itself isn't groundbreaking and given that I wonder if it's a testament of shame that despite all this time Chipotle is still leading the pack. To compound that Chipotle has an utter monopoly on mainstream 'healthy and conscious' food even after the movement went mainstream half a decade+ ago.
If the burrito can blaze thru the multinationals then Tesla has a fair chance going up against the order of black gold. If there is pessimism about Tesla it is warranted - no one has taken down the automotive/oil Goliath in most of our lifetimes. Let us not close the curtains before the show is over though - if there is any indication out there from the cult following around Tesla it may have just begun...
I've been stalking the TSLA (Tesla) stock charts lately waiting to put in my bigger stake of $5,000. I kept waiting though - when it was 44 - 46 - 48 - 50 - 52 - 56 - 54... I blamed my fear for my indecisiveness as the numbers escalated - waiting for a dip back to 38 which would not happen in the last 2 weeks. My logic said I can't predict the future and urged caution - yet - I did not know whether it was fear or logic pulling the cords now.
Whenever I have a situation like this I do the one thing that separates the wheat from the chaff - taking a small action similar to the bigger one I want to take. I opened up my WellsTrade brokerage account and put in a 300$ buy order for TSLA stock at 51$. Right as I did that and pressed confirm I felt a familiar sense of doom run thru my gut. Logically I've gone thru the homework. Tesla is very likely about to put out a very optimistic earning report on May 6th and given the huge amount of people shorting the stock I stand to make a nice chunk of change when the short squeeze happens. The pessimists will be forced to cover their position by buying more stock and driving it higher and they make up 40% of the stock outstanding atm. It's almost a sure moneymaker at this point - so why didn't I go all in on it?
No matter how much due diligence I try to add to the situation I can't convince myself enough that the stock market is worth learning to make money from. The chances of losing it ALL on Tesla overnight are slim to none - and I am prepared to lose my initial 500$ stake from a month ago. Overall I still can't shake the feeling of dread though. I guess it's just not my thing. I cannot shake the feeling I could've spent all that time reading assessments and articles and Tesla news on something productive. Hell even something entertaining to decompress may have even be worth more than the paltry 40$ I stand to make if the buy order goes thru and the stock surges another 10$ like last week. 40$ I will make by spending 2-3 hours researching Tesla for a paltry return of 13$/hr approx.
Somewhere out there on the floating rock someone just like me is putting down 10,000$ on Tesla now and will make probably make $1,800 profit by next weeks end on the short squeeze and small speculative bubble being generated on the stock at the moment. And they will be the better off for it financially. And I will know I may have just thrown away another small risk high return situation. Nevertheless I cannot deny that internally I just feel like it's not my thing.
Maybe feelings are meant to be discarded? I've always liked a mix of logic and emotional congruence behind the decisions I make. Some people even say feelings are valueless but from my new age phase they are the gateway into the realms logic cannot reach. There are things people know and have known without the use of derivative logic. The same phenomenon though is used to fuel self-sealing arguments all over the world each day. Would I be better off if I were just an unfeeling beast - the pinnacle of masculinity? Maybe in the material sense - yes - but once again - reflecting on that - it's just not my thing.
Tesla stock is down almost 10% today, after its 2012 earnings report became public. Tesla missed its projections and investors hammered the stock in response. So what did I just do? I just bought a lot of TSLA. Why did I do it? Because I'm betting on Elon.
There's a SeekingAlpha analyst report that's very bearish on Tesla stock. The author writes:
Here's the problem with the author's perspective: He doesn't understand Elon's master plan, nor does he appreciate Elon's "relentlessly resourceful" ability to execute on that plan.