Riding the variance wave to value


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Compounding growth: The snowball effect in advantage play

I've explained what I do in detail to many people over the years. When they see the kind of money you're earning, and they imagine the glamorous lifestyle, naturally they want in. I've written about the misconceived glamour before here, but there are other reasons why few people convert the information I give them into sizeable returns. One of these is the compounding nature of investment.

Like any other investment, advantage play returns are proportional to the amount of capital invested. There are other determining factors, such as the amount of time invested (something I've touched on here), the players risk profile, and application of diverse techniques/avenues. However none of these have as large absolute impact as the amount of capital which is being turned over. Thats because this impacts a players risk profile, and how much value they can financially access. For example, long odds opportunities may present great value at times, but require a certain risk aversion which can only be adopted when a players bankroll is large enough to take the variance. Some of this variance can be hedged out, however the required bankroll is still large relative to the return, due to the nature of hedging unlikely outcomes (you need to be able to cover the large loss should the event occur). Not only must a players bankroll be able to absorb variance, but it needs to also be large enough to be spread across a lot of unrelated areas. Value opportunities can arise across a number of platforms (casinos, different sports betting matches etc..) and a players bankroll should be sufficient to take the variance of all these opportunities and not let any pass due to running out of capital.

I've spent years building my bankroll, and there is still value which I am for-going either due to my risk profile, or because I am over-stretched elsewhere. This is an indicator that I should be continuing to reinvest my profits into advantage play until I reach the point where the returns are diminishing below that which the capital can achieve elsewhere (e.g over-paying the mortgage or other investments). As I reinvest a proportion of my profits, my bankroll grows, my risk profile adjust and I can stretch myself further. This is the compounding effect of reinvesting my profits. The returns increase at a rate greater than the relative increase in my bankroll. Another example of how a long-term approach is essential to long term profits and the players mental well-being.

Unfortunately most people I've introduced the concept too fail to see beyond the first payout. Their search for a get-rich-quick scheme stops them finding the value in reinvesting their profits, and developing the long-term approach which opens up so much value. Instead they're quick to draw down their first win-falls, and stop when the initial simple money is all dried up. They often return to me a few months later, explaining how they made a few thousand pounds, spent it, and then can't understand how I'm still going 7 years later. I offer some gentle push in the right direction, but few go on to take it any further.

The Drafting Process

On Unique FC

Having played fantasy football draft style using spreadsheets in the past, take if from me, the drafting process is simultaneously the most fun part of the game, as well as the most important. Your league season will be defined by decisions you make at this stage.

We'll break down the drafting procedure here and have a follow up article highlighting the key areas to think about when determining your drafting strategy.

Squad rules

▪There are no limits to how many players you can have from a single team

▪There are no prices/budgets. Salary cap leagues require this as a means to ensure that not all squads are the same collection of 15 superstars (even though, with the salary cap, they often end up being similiar collections of superstars/value players). The underlying principle of draft style fantasy football removes the requirement to have a salary cap.

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